Perturbation of biological communities, exemplified by habitat loss and the invasion of novel taxa may drive systems far from their ecological and evolutionary equilibria. This warrants the development of new mathematical tools that can investigate the consequences of such large perturbations. We propose to build a modeling framework on this background, elucidating the consequences of massive perturbation in biological communities. We will model spatially explicit, non-equilibrial systems whose dynamics are complicated by (i) ecological, (ii) genetic, and (iii) historical factors. These models will be parameterized by our empirical studies, which emphasize four focal species and specific organisms associated with them:
Both corn and beans were introduced in the recent past; genetically modified corn is currently introduced; habitat fragmentation is an ongoing process. All of these are massive perturbations over very short periods of time.
A general model of interactions between a host and its associates will frame the empirical studies. We propose a hierarchy of models at different spatial scales to determine the role of the different factors at different spatial scales. In addition, statistical tools will be developed to analyze data of genetic diversity under non-equilibrium conditions using both temporal and spatial information.
These studies will enable us to predict the evolutionary and ecological consequences of large range expansions and contractions of plants on their associated biological communities. Such predictions can serve as tool for managing pests and beneficial organisms in agricultural systems and can aid in the conservation of native species in native habitats.
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